Goldman Sachs & Barclays Capital: Peak cheap oil is an incontrovertible fact

Peak cheap oil is an incontrovertible fact

Comment: Mr. Evans-Pritchard is clueless that 'Peak Oil' means 'the end of cheap oil'; which is shocking ignorance. Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) explains how and why there can be ten trillion barrels deep under the ground, but if it requires more than one barrel of oil, to dig up another barrel of oil; there is no return on investment/i.e. it is an energy sink: fucking pointless!

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard | Telegraph | 26 Aug 2012

Brent crude jumped to $115 a barrel last week. Petrol costs in Germany and across much of Europe are now at record levels in local currencies.

Diesel is above the political pain threshold of $4 a gallon in the US, hence reports circulating last week that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is preparing to release strategic reserves.

Barclays Capital expects a “monster” effect this quarter as the crude market tightens by 2.4m barrels a day (bpd), with little extra supply in sight.

Goldman Sachs said the industry is chronically incapable of meeting global needs. “It is only a matter of time before inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand,” said its oil guru David Greely.

This is a remarkable state of affairs given the world economy is close to a double-dip slump right now, the latest relapse in our contained global depression.

Britain, the eurozone, and parts of Eastern Europe are in outright recession. China has “hard-landed”, the result of a monetary shock and real M1 contraction last winter. The HSBC manufacturing index fell deeper into contraction in July.

Error in Bridgewater Publication: A Template for Understanding Whats Going On: How the Economic Machine Works: Disregard for Peak Oil and Peak Non-Renewable Natural Resources as the Ecological Foundation of Economic and Political Reality

Peak Oil/NNR Error in Bridgewater Publication: T4U: How Economic Machine Works

RE: Error in Bridgewater Publication: A Template for Understanding Whats Going On: How the Economic Machine Works: Disregard for Peak Oil and Peak Non-Renewable Natural Resources as the Ecological Foundation of Economic and Political Reality

From: Lara Johnstone
Sent: Sunday, April 29, 2012 9:38 PM
To: US: BWater: Paul Darrah; US: BWater: Joel Whidden; US: BWater: Jim White; US: BWater: Kylee Gioiele; US: BWater: Chris Mascarinas
Cc: Dick Smith; Presidency: Dumisa Jele - Ch. Of Staff; Minister of Planning: Ellen Mabunda - Pers. Asst; Min of Finance/Treasury: Lindani Mbunyuza; Treasury: Kershia Singh;
Subject: Peak Oil/NNR Error in Bridgewater Publication: T4U: How Economic Machine Works

CEO: Ray Dalio
Bridgewater Associates
One Glendinning Place
Westport, CT 06880
c/o BWater Employees

CC: (Radical Transparency) Minister of Finance: Mr. Pravin Gordhan; National Strategic Planning Commission: Mr. Trevor Manuel
CC: Peak Oil Org's & Individuals

Dear Mr. Dalio,

RE: Error in Bridgewater Publication: A Template for Understanding Whats Going On: How the Economic Machine Works: Disregard for Peak Oil and Peak Non-Renewable Natural Resources as the Ecological Foundation of Economic and Political Reality

On 08 April I wrote you an email wherein I informed you of my opinion that there is an error in your Bridgewater Associates publication: A Template for Understanding Whats Going On[1]. Specifically that your No.1 Trend Line Productivity Graph was incorrect.

I stated that your graph was a ‘small picture’ graph, and that if you had a ‘big picture’ reality perspective, your graph would look more like that of Mr. Chris Clugston in his Peak NNR book: Scarcity: Humanity’s Last Chapter: A Comprehensive Analysis of Nonrenewable Natural Resource (NNR) Scarcity’s Consequences.

Put succinctly: (I) Peak Oil & Peak Non-Renewable Resources = End of Economic Growth (II) Sustainable Economic Growth is an Oxymoron; (III) Ecological Sustainability = (A) Urgent Population & Consumption Reduction, (B) Political Secession & Economic Relocalisation

I have not received a response from you or anyone at Bridgewater Associates to inform me whether you enquired into the information provided to your offices and what conclusions you reached based upon your enquiry.

Attached PDF includes information on above Peak Oil and NNR realities as well as philosophical perspectives to Masculine (Reason and Logic) Insecurity EgoCentric Denial of the Impending Collapse of Industrial Civilisation.

I am aware of the fact that your -- Daily Observations -- Newsletter is "one of the most widely forwarded pieces of market analysis" read by "practically everyone who is anyone on the Street", including "leaders of central banks, managers of global pension funds as well as U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geitner and President Barack Obama."[2]

Population of African cities to triple || World Bank: Demographics & Future || UN Overpopulation Warning to Africa

Population of African cities to triple: Get the data

The population of Africa's cities is expected to rise rapidly. Find which cities are set to grow.

The population of African cities is set to triple over the next 40 years according to a report by UN-HABITAT.

The report entitled The State of African Cities 2010: Governance, Inequalities and Urban Land Markets shows Africa facing a remarkable rise in urban population.

Cairo is set to grow by 23% over the next 15 years with a projected figure of 13.5 million inhabitants by 2025. Lagos in Nigeria and Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo rank in second and third place of Africa's highest urban agglomerations.

The population of Lagos is expected to nearly double in the next fifteen years with cities such as Dar es Salaam predicted to boost their population by just under 3 million people.

EU Economic Collapse & Pentagon General impending ride across the Potomac to suspend Constitution

BBC Speechless As Trader Tells Truth: "The Collapse Is Coming...And Goldman Rules The World" ()

ClusterfuckNation: The Rainmakers | Oil Factor Lessons from Soviet Union | Three Days of the Condor

While You Were Sleeping… The Economy Collapsed

There are a number of half truths and financial fantasies floating around the U.S. today, which may explain why some have decided to throw caution to the wind, adopting a cult-like blind faith in the “unsinkable” American economy. I suspect that the consequences for this error in judgment will become quite clear to most by the end of next year, but until then, let’s examine our current situation, what the government has to say about it, and the reality they wish to gloss over.

It’s nice to maintain a rosy outlook on the economic situation we face. It makes us feel safe. The fact is, though, that we are far from safe, and denying the problem will not make it go away. The MSM’s main drive, at least for now, is to promote a sense of well being. Some of them do it because they believe the markets are driven by psychology and that by creating a positive atmosphere, we can somehow make our troubles disappear through shear force of will. Of course, this is an absurd notion.

Others ignore the facts and spin ideas of recovery deliberately and with malicious intent, because they know comfortable people are not alert, and those that are not alert are easy to surprise, and surprised people are easy to control.

Small-business bankruptcies rise 81% in California...

With credit tight and consumers still pinching their pennies, many business owners find they can't go on.

The actual number of small businesses in trouble is probably higher, experts said, because many owners file for personal bankruptcy rather than seek protection for the business.

Dennis McGoldrick, a bankruptcy lawyer in Torrance, said his clients are all stuck in similar situations -- capital is hard to come by, customers are tough to attract and debt is piling up.

"In this economy, anything that isn't a necessity is a tough business to be in," March said. "And the majority of my clients have waited too long to file for bankruptcy and in the process made things worse on themselves financially as a result."

Peak Debt: A World Drowning in Debt

A world awash in debt

Globe and Mail

Kevin Carmichael
Ottawa — Globe and Mail Update
Published on Friday, Nov. 27, 2009 7:29PM EST


The financial crisis provoked a global front to stimulate economies through massive spending. But this was fuelled by a staggering amount of borrowing. Now governments are realizing that a new calamity looms - higher taxes and slashed social programs

or 220 years, through civil upheaval, global conflict and a depression, the United States largely kept its public debt under control.

But the world's largest economy may finally have met its match. In its bid to prevent the Great Recession from spiralling into a global depression, the U.S. government spent tens of billions rescuing financial institutions and automotive companies. In the process, the federal budget deficit swelled 220 per cent from 2008 to a record $1.6-trillion (U.S.).

The world's biggest economy has plenty of company: Seven of the members of the Group of 20 nations are on a trajectory that will leave them with debts bigger than 75 per cent of their economies by 2014, according to the International Monetary Fund.

It's hard to understate the fiscal cost of the financial crisis, which continues to send shock waves around the world. This week's move by Dubai World, a state-owned conglomerate that fuelled the United Arab Emirates' rapid growth, to withhold debt payments shows the financial crisis continues to put government finances at risk.

Weimar HyperInflation: Time to Get Out the Wheelbarrows? || Economic crisis spurs spike in 'suburban survivalists'

Weimar HyperInflation: Time to Get Out the Wheelbarrows?

Ellen Brown | Web of Debt

May 19th, 2009

“It was horrible. Horrible! Like lightning it struck. No one was prepared. The shelves in the grocery stores were empty.You could buy nothing with your paper money.

– Harvard University law professor Friedrich Kessler on on the Weimar Republic hyperinflation (1993 interview)

Some worried commentators are predicting a massive hyperinflation of the sort suffered by Weimar Germany in 1923, when a wheelbarrow full of paper money could barely buy a loaf of bread. An April 29 editorial in the San Francisco Examiner warned:

“With an unprecedented deficit that’s approaching $2 trillion, [the President’s 2010] budget proposal is a surefire prescription for hyperinflation. So every senator and representative who votes for this monster $3.6 trillion budget will be endorsing a spending spree that could very well turn America into the next Weimar Republic.”1

In an investment newsletter called Money Morning on April 9, Martin Hutchinson pointed to disturbing parallels between current government monetary policy and Weimar Germany’s, when 50% of government spending was being funded by seigniorage – merely printing money.2 However, there is something puzzling in his data. He indicates that the British government is already funding more of its budget by seigniorage than Weimar Germany did at the height of its massive hyperinflation; yet the pound is still holding its own, under circumstances said to have caused the complete destruction of the German mark. Something else must have been responsible for the mark’s collapse besides mere money-printing to meet the government’s budget, but what? And are we threatened by the same risk today? Let’s take a closer look at the data.

Ten $$ Things To Do! || Lessons of the Global Financial Crisis: 1. End of Ponzi Prosperity; 2. Whatever it Takes! 3. Built to Fail!

Ten Things You Must Do!!

Karls Market Ticker! (Excerpt)

Don't say you weren't warned.

So without further adieu, here's my list of 10 things you need to be doing now:

1. Stop listening to those who claim that "The Market is telling you the recession is ending/over." Baloney. What was the market telling you in October of 2007 when the SPX hit 1576? That everything was great and "subprime was contained", right? Any more questions on that piece of nonsense?
   
   
2. Get out of debt - NOW. Revolving debt in particular is murderous. If your credit line hasn't been cut back or your interest rate jacked, you're one of the few. It will happen. Going bankrupt due to increasing debt service requirements (with or without job loss) sucks.
   
   
3. Stop spending more than you make - in fact, do the opposite - start saving. NOW. You need to be saving 10% of your gross income. Not net or "excess" - gross. These funds serve two purposes: an emergency fund (which you're likely to need) and if you have one already it will also serve as a fund to buy up assets that will be puked up when things get really bad. You don't get wealthy by selling to some other sucker - you get wealthy by buying when nobody has any money to buy - that is, by driving the hardest bargain you can imagine!
   
   
4. I've said it before but it bears repeating: have the ability to make it even if you lose your job. Most people say three months of reserves are necessary. I've said six months to two years, and I'll reiterate it. And reserves means cash, not credit. Parked in a credit union is ok - but be prepared to make that actual cash in a big honking hurry if you need to. How do you know if you need to? If and when the first Treasury auction fails, the market crashes below the 666 March low and/or a big bank fails, you need to.